A recent scenario analysis by tourism intelligence platform DataGreat projects the potential disruption to Russian outbound tourism and its impact on European and eastern Mediterranean travel patterns. Utilizing DataGreat’s Crisis Impact Simulator, the study builds on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset to explore the effects of a renewed shockwave, stemming from factors like tightened sanctions, currency depreciation, and travel route constraints. Such developments could further redirect Russian tourists away from the European Union, where the initial shock from the 2022 Ukrainian invasion already caused significant declines in Russian visitors.
The initial shock diverted Russian leisure travelers from EU destinations, with Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt emerging as the primary beneficiaries, absorbing a substantial portion of displaced tourists. The new analysis evaluates the potential consequences of a second wave, which could see a 20 to 35 percent decrease in Russian outbound travel to affected regions over a year. This scenario examines three categories of exposure: residual EU destinations with existing Russian tourist concentrations, Mediterranean locales reliant on package holidays and charters, and absorber markets like Türkiye, assessing whether other source markets can compensate for any losses in Russian tourists.
DataGreat’s simulator identifies vulnerabilities among tourism operators, notably those dependent on Russian-language tour groups and charter-based package deals. The platform leverages deterministic computations from inbound share data to pinpoint at-risk segments, while its AI layer provides narrative context. To mitigate potential impacts, the simulator suggests diversification towards Gulf Cooperation Council countries and India, repositioning products to attract European markets, and implementing currency-corridor hedging for businesses with significant ruble-denominated revenue streams.
This analysis complements DataGreat’s existing Risk Radar module, which evaluates 42 destinations weekly across six tourism risk categories, including source-market concentration. Together, these tools offer a comprehensive view, enabling analysts to not only identify vulnerable destinations but also understand the specific impacts of potential shocks on various segments. DataGreat plans to release detailed, destination-specific breakdowns from the simulator continuously through 2026, with full access available to credentialed media for the 42 destinations included in the WTTC dataset.
DataGreat operates under Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş., based in Edirne, Türkiye. The platform leverages the extensive WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset, encompassing 42 countries and over 26,000 verified data points, to deliver insights through its comprehensive suite of products, including the Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and the Crisis Impact Simulator.
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